I’ve been dreading this day, but it’s finally arrived…my Oscar predictions are in. This year sucks for predictions, because there are so many bizarre variables in the mix. But I’ve rolled my bones, I’ve consulted my tea leaves, and I’ve even sacrificed a goat to Baal, so let’s get this thing going.
As always, my obligatory disclaimer:
These predictions are who I think will win, not who I think should win. I don’t care who should actually win these things. My fun is in the predictions. Also, even more than most years, I haven’t even seen most of these movies. In fact until Monday (when I finally saw Children of Men, which yeah, was pretty great), the only movies I had seen that were nominated for for any award were Cars and Superman Returns. And you already know what I thought about that last one.
As with every year, these predictions are only for the categories in my annual bet with my father, so I don’t cover everything. I do not recommend putting money on the Oscars, or even participating in office pools. If you must, hopefully I can be of some help, but don’t blame me if you lose (just be sure to thank me if you win). My annual prediction rate hovers somewhere around the 80% line. Some years it’s better (like that golden year of 1998, where I got almost 100%, although that was like shooting fish in a barrel) and some years it’s worse.
Anyway, there’s a lot to get to, so let’s do this thing.
Best Picture: The Departed.
Let’s tackle the big one first, because it shows just how fractured this year’s race is. The producer’s guild award is usually the best indicator, and that went to Little Miss Sunshine. But last year Brokeback Mountain won the PGA, and then still lost the Oscar to Crash, which won the editor’s guild award, but not the PGA. This year the ACE award ended in a freaking tie between Babel and The Departed. Ugh. With little else to fall back on, I’m going with The Departed, because I think it’s going to win another big category (see below).
Best Director: Martin Scorsese, The Departed.
I know I say this every year, but he’s due. This may not be the most acclaimed film of his career, but it’s time. It also doesn’t hurt that there just isn’t as much competition this year as there has been in past years. And he won the DGA. I’m confident in this choice.
Best Actor: Forrest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland.
Nothing would make me happier than seeing Peter O’Toole win this category after eight previous nominations (especially after his acceptance speech in 2003 for his honorary award, when he said he hadn’t given up hope of winning yet), but there’s just no buzz for anyone but Whitaker. That doesn’t mean O’Toole is out of the running…the Oscars always have some shockers, and those voters are a sentimental bunch…but Whitaker’s got the buzz, so he’s got my pick.
Best Actress: Helen Mirren, The Queen.
No doubt in my mind here. Aside from Penelope Cruz, this category is filled with Oscar regulars. This is Winslet’s fifth nomination, Dame Judy already has one Oscar and was also nominated five other times, and well, Meryl Streep is Meryl Streep. She’s been nominated so many times (12) and won twice that that punchline just isn’t funny anymore. Helen Mirren deserved an Oscar for The Cook, The Thief, His Wife and Her Lover (trust me) and not so much so for Caligula, but she’s earned this award. Oh, and she’s picked up every other possible award. This one’s a lock.
Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls.
Yeah, I can’t believe I wrote those words either. Can you believe this guy is going to win just weeks after the opening of Norbit? Just remember, voting was done long ago. The nutty professor’s gonna win. Maybe now we’ll see less Nutty Professor and more Delirious. (But I doubt it). Djimon Hounsou could be a surprise, as could Alan Arkin, but I don’t see it.
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls.
I’ve never watched American Idol, so I know nothing about this person. All I know is that the critics loved her, she outshone Beyonce*, and has won every award she’s been nominated for. Lock for sure.
*The only thing I know about Beyonce is that she named her album after an implement for cleaning your naughty bits. WTF?
Original Screenplay: Little Miss Sunshine.
Ah, original screenplay. The token award you give to the well-meaning movie that gets lots of nominations but is the underdog in all of them (remember, Sideways, my children). It won the writer’s guild, the movie is nominated for a bunch of awards, this is a lock.
Adapted Screenplay: The Departed.
Won the writer’s guild award, my pick for both picture and movie. Key word here is synergy. I would love to see Borat win, just to see if Sacha Baron Cohen accepts in character, but I can’t see it happening.
Best Editing: Babel.
As I said above, Babel tied with The Departed for the Eddie award, making this extremely difficult. This award usually goes to a movie that feels like it came together in the editing room. That’s how you get quirky winners like The Matrix (although the fact that Memento lost still stings me). By that logic, United 93 should be a front runner (I had actually expected that to win the Eddie), but so should Babel, as both are films about large numbers of characters. The ACE tie makes me lean towards Babel, but think long and hard before picking this one.
Best Cinematography: Children of Men.
This was a tough call this year, but then Children of Men won the cinematographer’s guild award, and that’s my benchmark. Look for a possible win by Pan’s Labyrinth here…that edged out Children of Men in the Art Director’s Guild awards (something I’ll come back to shortly). But I’m going with Children of Men’s gritty look.
Best Costume Design: Curse of the Golden Flower.
Reeeeally tough call here. Curse of the Golden Flower, The Queen and Pan’s Labyrinth all won at the Costume Designer’s Guild awards. I’m going with Curse of the Golden Flower for its sheer scale and ambition, but Pan’s Labyrinth could win here too. Dreamgirls also has a shot purely because it’s a musical, but it hasn’t won much of anything in this category. Flip a coin between Curse and Pan, with The Queen as the wacky longshot, and Marie Antoinette as the dark horse if anyone manages to get past the soundtrack and remember that it’s a period piece.
Best Art Direction: Pan’s Labyrinth.
Pan’s won the Art Director’s Guild award, and has great buzz, so that’s where I’m going. Dreamgirls could win because it’s a musical, and you sort of take for granted that it’s going to have great art direction, but I don’t buy it.
Best Animated Feature: Cars.
I can’t believe this category is being contested. Pixar always wins, whether it’s for their awesome shorts or full-length movies, and this category just isn’t old enough for anyone else to have that kind of legacy. But Happy Feet, despite it being a quick cash-in on the baffling popularity of March of the Penguins, has a lot of fans. And Monster House is supposed to be great as well. I’m going with Pixar because that lets me sleep at night.
Best Foreign Language Film: Pan’s Labyrinth.
Every year I go with Ebert’s pick because I haven’t heard of most, if not all of the nominees. This year that’s still good logic, but it’s backed up by that phenomenon that happens every so often when a film is nominated for a lot of awards (Pan’s is up for six) one of which just happens to be this category. It can’t win best picture (for one thing, it’s not nominated), so it’ll take the next best thing. Count on seeing one of the biggest geeks in Hollywood go up there for this award. I can’t wait.
Best Documentary Feature: An Inconvenient Truth.
Yeah, it’s a powerpoint presentation, but it’s won a ton of awards, and Hollywood loves to have their little political moments. No, I don’t think Al Gore will announce that he’s running for president when he accepts this award (however much I’d like him to), but he’s gonna win. Hopefully his acceptance will be a little more dignified than Michael Moore’s, although I think I might pay good money to see Gore get up there and act righteous and obnoxious. I just don’t think it’s in him.
Best Original Score: The Queen.
Yeah. Don’t ask me why. This category sucks. I could see this going to Babel or Pan’s Labyrinth (which I hear has a catchy score). There’s virtually no data to work off of for this category. The Queen has won the LA Film Critic’s award (not a good indicator) and the Golden Globe (totally not a good indicator), while Babel has won the BAFTA (not a good indicator). That’s two bad indicators against one. I’m going with The Queen. I used to judge this one by listening to the music, but either my ear doesn’t work that way anymore or the academy has different ears than I do.
Best Original Song: “I Need to Wake Up” from An Inconvenient Truth.
Here’s another crazy category. There are three songs from the same movie nominated in this category. Three! WTF! Then you have a Melissa Etheridge song and the obligatory Randy Newman song. Randy Newman’s out. He’s won before and been nominated 12 other times (I think, I may be miscounting by a few). I decided (at the last minute) to go with Melissa Etheridge, but I could easily see this going to “Listen,” the song from Beyonce/Dreamgirls.
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Phew. That’s a whole lot of awards. And I don’t even do all of them! As always, best of luck to you, and feel free to post your thoughts below.