loonyblog.

Greetings, dear reader, and welcome back to another edition of my annual Oscar picks. I took last year off, as the awards landed just two weeks after my daughter was born, and with all the drama and craziness surrounding that, I barely had a chance to look at the nominees before the broadcast, let alone form picks. But a year has passed, and my daughter is now a rambunctious almost-toddler, which means she’s sleeping through the night, my life has settled into relative normalcy, and I can safely take a stab at predicting the 2009 Academy Awards.

Before I get to my picks, my traditional disclaimer: these predictions are who I believe will win, not who I think should win. Having seen very few of these movies, I really don’t have any particular opinion on who should win, so don’t ask.

Also, the only categories I’m listing are ones in my annual bet with my father. We cover just about everything, but we leave out the shorts and super technical categories.

As for my track record, I tend to land somewhere in the 60 – 80% category every year. Some years it’s higher, some years it’s lower. Way back in 1998 I landed almost 100%, although let’s be honest, it was pretty freaking easy that year.

Anyway, let’s get to the good stuff.

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire

This is a lock. Some years this category is something of a mystery. It ain’t this year.

Best Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Again, a lock. At one point I figured this was going to be Gus Van Sant’s year, but man, Boyle has picked up some crazy awards, and this is going to be a Slumdog Oscar year.

Best Actor: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

My confidence in this category isn’t nearly as absolute now as it was a few weeks ago, but dammit, I’m sticking with Rourke on this one. Word is that it’s come down to either Rourke or Sean Penn, but Frank Langella or Richard Jenkins could pull off a Marcia Gay Harden here and win. I’m going with Rourke because of his guild wins and the fact that Hollywood loves a comeback story. But I freely admit to being a little worried about this one (plus I’m positive my father is going to pick Sean Penn, so there’s that too).

Best Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader

You know what they say, the sixth time’s the charm. Meryl Streep is considered to be #2 here, but I think she’s got enough Oscars already. Melissa Leo to me is the dark horse in this category. But I think this is Kate Winslet’s year.

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Total lock. None of the other nominees are serious contenders here, and everyone knows it. It’s a shame Ledger didn’t win for Brokeback Mountain, but if this is to be his final nomination, it’s good to see him go out with a win.

Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona

This category is wide open. I’m going with Cruz because she’s got buzz, but having actually seen the movie, I don’t think she actually deserves it. Still, buzz is buzz, and I’ve made my choice. But really, anyone in this category has a shot.

Best Original Screenplay: Milk

WALL-E also has a shot here, but I don’t see it. Milk’s gotta win something, and I think this is it.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire

Lock.

Best Film Editing: Slumdog Millionaire

Most people are safely picking Slumdog here, and I’m no exception. A lot of the time there’s a three-way Picture, Director and Editing sweep, and that’s what I’m counting on. But I fully recognize that Benjamin Button or The Dark Knight could pick this up. This category sometimes goes to the flashy, fancy-edited movies (see: The Matrix’s win in 2000 which I suspected might happen, but still went with the safe – but ultimately wrong – bet). If that’s the case, it could wind up with either The Dark Knight or Benjamin Button.

Best Cinematography: Slumdog Millionaire

This is the safe bet, and it’s killing me. My gut is telling me there’s no way this movie can win for cinematography, since it was shot in digital, and not on film. But it won the ASC and BAFTA for Cinematography, and that’s just too hard to pass up. If you want to know what my gut’s telling me, it’s saying that this award is going to go to Benjamin Button. Sometimes I gotta go against my gut. Hopefully this doesn’t come back to haunt me.

Best Costume Design: The Dutchess

There’s only one real costume drama this year, and it’s The Dutchess.

Best Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

This could go to The Dutchess, or even The Dark Knight, but I have to assume that something is going to go to the movie with the most nominations, and this is the most logical choice.

Best Animated Feature: WALL-E

Going as far back as when they were the unstoppable force in the shorts categories, my rule has always been this: bet against Pixar at your own risk. Yes, Kung-Fu Panda won the Annie award, but I have no idea how that happened. This is all about WALL-E, a movie some thought should have been nominated for best picture (not me though, I haven’t seen it yet).

Best Foreign Language Film: Waltz With Bashir

This is either going to be Waltz With Bashir or The Class. I’m completely torn between the two, and I’m going with Bashir purely because when I have no other opinion on this category, I go with Ebert’s choice. Very rarely has he led me wrong way on this one.

Best Documentary Feature: Man on Wire

This oddball movie is the odds-on favorite this year, so I’m going with it. It’s that simple.

Best Original Score: Slumdog Millionaire

No question in my mind. It’s a highly original soundtrack alongside some pretty traditional contenders. And it’ll get swept along with the rest of Slumdog fever.

Best Song: “Jai-Ho” from Slumdog Millionaire

Why are there only three songs nominated this year? Got me. Traditionally I’d say that having two songs nominated from the same movie will cancel each other out, but there’s been an active campaign to get people to vote specifically for the closing credits song “Jai-Ho” (despite “O Saya” being the slightly more original sounding song), so I’m not that concerned. Plus I just don’t see this being Peter Gabriel’s year.

So there you have it…my picks. Some quick picks for other categories not covered in our bet: Makeup (Benjamin Button), Visual Effects (Benjamin Button), Animated Short (Oktapodi).

If you’re betting this year, good luck! It should be a good show. I know this sounds insane, but the musical numbers this year should be awesome. There are two Bollywood songs and Peter Gabriel. What’s not to love? Not to mention the fact that there’s a Tony winner hosting the whole ceremony. Should be great.